What is the one (or two) most important number/trend to track when trying to predict mortgage interest rates?

Asked by Jason

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Answered by Chad Freeman, Branch ManagerPRO+ in Bethesda, MD
Hi Jason:

By far, the most important market to track will be the bond market. This is where mortgage backed securities are bought & sold and your greatest predicter of rates will be the ebb & flow of bond yields & prices (based on money flowing in and out of bonds). The most common secondary inidcator to watch is the 10Y treasury yield. What I would highly recommend is that you work with a loan officer who, in real-time, watches these markets closely throughout the day. Although there is no crystal ball, your loan officer will be much better equipped to lock in the most competitive rate for you by monitoring these markets. | 03.11.15 @ 20:07
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$commenter.renderDisplayableName() — {comment} | 12.07.16 @ 12:32
Answered by Ted Rood, Mortgage BrokerPRO+ in Maryland Heights, MO
I track rates on MortgageNewsDaily.com It's an indispensable tool (along with the sister "MBS Live" bond tracking website) for borrowers and loan officers to track rates' daily movement and trends. When you interview a loan officer, ask how they track rates. If they say MBS (which stands for Mortgage Backed Securities, the bonds that mortgages are rolled into and sold on the secondary market), that's a good thing. If they say "my rate sheets", you may want to consider a more knowledgeable lender. 10 year treasuries are an easy to track indicator of rates' movement. For instance, the 10 year went from 2.03% on April 30th to 2.18% at the close today. That's roughly 1/8th % higher, and mortgage rates have gone up about the same amount during that period. | 05.06.15 @ 00:36
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$commenter.renderDisplayableName() — {comment} | 12.07.16 @ 12:32
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