The Latest Odds on Our Next President

Foreign Casinos Set Odds on Each Candidate

The Latest Odds on Our Next President
September 11, 2015

Would you like to place a bet that Republican property mogul Donald Trump will (or will not) be the next U.S. President? Sorry, you cannot do it in Las Vegas — Sin City is not allowed to take bets on Presidential elections. In fact, it is not legal for Americans to bet on elections at all. State and federal laws prohibit the practice.

There are ways that Americans can place bets using overseas gambling sites under certain conditions, but we do not condone illegal activity. If you want to do so, you can certainly find out how through Internet resources. Perhaps the NSA does not care what you do in your spare time.

However, it is perfectly legal to look up the odds and have a good chuckle at them, or observe them as they change. Bovada, based in Canada, and Ladbrokes, based in the UK, are two of the most well-known oddsmakers, although there are a host of others. We will start by looking at Bovada and follow up with British bookmakers. These figures were accurate at the time of writing.

  • Republicans – It is no surprise that Donald Trump has shown the greatest increase in the odds of becoming President, moving from 25:1 on August 5th to 7:1 on August 25th (the most recent issue as of this writing). However, the favorite to prevail is still the former Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush, at 3.75:1, a drop from his previous 3.5:1 odds. Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker and Senator Marco Rubio have both sunk to 14:1 odds from their previous 10:1 and 12:1 respectively.

    Governor of Ohio John Kasich is doing unusually well at Bovada, vaulting from 40:1 to 25:1. Texan Senator Ted Cruz and Detroit neurosurgeon Ben Carson are on the upswing, currently tied at 33:1 after rising from 40:1 and 45:1 respectively. Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina are tied at 50:1, although that is a rise for Fiorina and a drop for the controversial Christie, who recently suggested tracking immigrants the way FedEx tracks packages.

    Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has plummeted from 25:1 to 100:1. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former Senator Rick Santorum are at 150:1, and Mike Huckabee, the former Governor of Arkansas, has sunk beyond that mark, as have the other contenders.

    The British bookmakers show similarities at the top. The first discrepancy is Walker's lower odds at around 16:1 on average. UK books show a far greater preference for Rand Paul at around 40:1 to 50:1, and the pack of Huckabee, Cruz, Fiorina, Carson, and Christie are in the 50:1-70:1 range. The rest are near 100:1 odds or below.

  • Democrats – So far, former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton is the winner. She is basically even money on all books. Bovada has her slipping slightly from 11/10 to 10/11. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders has dropped a bit from 12:1 to 14:1. Vice President Joe Biden, who is contemplating a run as of this writing, improved from 20:1 to 18:1.

    Everybody else is far in the distance. The next highest odds are for Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has repeatedly said she is not running in 2016, at 66:1. Ex-Virginia Senator and former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb along with Former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley are the next in line at 100:1 odds.

    British oddsmakers effectively agree, even throwing in Secretary of State John Kerry as a 100:1 candidate. Apparently all it takes is one nuclear deal with Iran to get you nominated.

You can amuse yourself with a summary of British odds on the U.S. presidency, from the serious to the silly, at Oddschecker.com. Odds are available for many people who are not running and/or are totally unqualified, as well as people you have probably never heard of.

What about climate change campaigner Al Gore? Anywhere from 80:1 to 250:1. And former member of The House of Representatives Michele Bachmann? Anywhere from 125:1 to 250:1. How about a third Obama term via electing the First Lady Michelle Obama? That is available from 150:1 to 500:1. Prefer Chelsea Clinton to Hillary? That is a 300:1 bet. George Clooney leads the acting contingent at 250:1, if you do not count Arnold Schwarzenegger at 150:1.

For those of you who truly have money to waste, you can get 500:1 odds on Charlie Sheen to be the next U.S. President (Winning!), 750:1 odds on Alec Baldwin or Eva Longoria, and as the topper, 1000:1 odds on Kim Kardashian.

No odds yet on rapper (and Kim’s husband) Kanye West, who announced at MTV Video Music Awards 2015 that he will be running for president in 2020

Photo ©iStock.com/EdStock

  Conversation   |   27 Comments

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Steffanie | 09.11.15 @ 16:02
Currently, I am not thrilled with any of the candidates.
Bobbie | 09.11.15 @ 16:10
I think this is pretty funny. There is always money to be made (and lost) with betting on anything.
Irene | 09.11.15 @ 16:12
If I had a million dollars I would be willing to bet it that The donald is not going to be our next president.
amanda | 09.11.15 @ 16:14
So far nobody seems good enough, Trump is just a jerk among other choice words. But the stats of all these people are quite entertaining
Erin | 09.11.15 @ 16:17
Is there anything people won't bet on? I guess this isn't any sillier than any of the other things going on with the campaigns at this point, so...have fun?
trish | 09.11.15 @ 16:17
Amazing how there are odds placed on everything...but what is worse, is those they named that have the best odds...
Nancy | 09.11.15 @ 16:18
It seems like the last few elections that I have voted for the lesser of 2 evils. Unfortunately, that means that no matter who won, evil still was the victor. I know matter of opinion.
Jo Ann | 09.11.15 @ 16:18
This was a enjoyable article. It really makes a person stop and wonder just how silly some of these candidates look to the rest of the world. And of course I don't count any of them out until that last vote is counted, and recounted, and recounted.
Owen | 09.11.15 @ 16:20
Not worth the bet. I hope whoever wins leads us in the right direction.
Meredith L | 09.11.15 @ 16:21
Fools who want to part with their money! Sadly, our presidential races are so media driven by sound bites that very few people are truly educated about the best choice for the office.
Carla Truett | 09.11.15 @ 16:23
I just hope that whoever wins can get us out of the mess we are in now. Please don't let Kanye run in 2020!
Britt | 09.11.15 @ 16:24
I'm too happy with any of them so far... Hillary is an incompetent traitor who should be in prison, Trump is an idiot and Bernie can't understand basic economics.
Sara | 09.11.15 @ 16:24
I do not care for any of them. Well actually I like Ben Carson. But sadly he does not have the money that these people do.
Sarah | 09.11.15 @ 16:24
This is sad... very, very sad.
Kyle | 09.11.15 @ 16:26
I'm not too happy at all about our candidates.
Morgan | 09.11.15 @ 16:28
The only person that I really like that is running is Paul.
Jackie | 09.11.15 @ 16:29
My dad always told me people will bet on anything. This proves he was right.
gracie | 09.11.15 @ 16:29
So far none of them are worth betting on as far as I am concerned. No matter which direction you look in it's still not a great option of choices.
Steven | 09.11.15 @ 16:32
I do not like any of them. Though sadly our country will end up picking one of them. Hope I am wrong though.. Would love to see Ben Carson get in there.
Katie | 09.11.15 @ 16:33
Not a particular fan of any of the current candidates, but time will tell how it all turns out. I wish people would find better things to do with their money then waste it on betting about presidents, or any kind of betting in general.
Kamie | 09.11.15 @ 16:37
I think this is funny, and only shows the lack of trust that people now have with having a US leader.. They all have become jokes.
Daniel Dohlstrom | 09.11.15 @ 16:49
Perfect analogy because lets face it, it is a pure gamble no matter who you go with
Tina | 09.11.15 @ 16:52
I'm not very pleased with the selection so far. I hope some of these candidates prove me wrong or emerge to be the frontrunners instead of it being a Trump vs. Clinton election. I don't think either is what our country needs.
Helen | 09.11.15 @ 22:08
Bernie Sanders #feelthebern
Andrea | 09.12.15 @ 00:49
Not impressed. Seems to be getting worse every term.
Robert | 10.15.15 @ 16:50
What happened to mister Webb I put him in the top three. And, for Hillary bragging how she worked with a small child as a lawyer is a joke.. She forgets that she has lived in tax paid housing for over half of her adult life. That includes driving herself or paying for gas all was gotten for her being in the governors mansion in Little Rock Ar. Then the White House Sec of State Blah, Blah, Blah... Last on my list including her millions....
Brad | 03.25.16 @ 15:08
Clinton is already completely controlled; "things" will generally continue to worsen under her, making Obama look as good as W currently does to some. The "Goldwater Girl" is only more of what she was. It's more likely that the Republicans are going to let Trump in, and then they (e.g., the media and those who control and benefit from it) will be used to control him and his audiences. If this doesn't work out, there's always 'some nut with a gun' (watch who gets picked for the cabinet) . But most likely this won't be necessary, since T. Rump has never been one to let principle interfere with the deal. He will surely 'go along to get along', for the greater good of course. This is the only smart thing the Republicans can do. Sanders is the closest thing we get to defining anything remotely worth the risk/effort. It's fitting that his path is so difficult now, because should he actually succeed, today's challenges will pale. But, at least he (alone) both recognizes and accepts this. And he appears to be a neither a coward nor a liar, not something that can be said about ANY of his peers. If he is able to continue, I suspect his life will be in constant danger. He will likely often (and probably ultimately) fail And, for me, it is still better to risk failing in pursuit of something that's worth it, than it is to succeed at what is not.
$commenter.renderDisplayableName() | 12.06.16 @ 18:25
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